Italy vs France Prediction | November 12, 2026

This analysis is for readers looking for an Italy vs France prediction. It covers the UEFA Nations League match to be played on November 12, 2026 at 22:45 Turkey time. The clash pits two football powers against each other and highlights the contrast between a highly productive France attack and an Italy side that tends to produce more balanced scorelines. You can find similar previews on our latest match predictions page.

Match Information

League: UEFA Nations League
Match: Italy vs France
Date: November 12, 2026
Time (TR): 22:45

To see other games on the calendar, use the fixtures page.

Recent Form

Italy collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last five matches. Although the defeats are few, the two draws suggest the team has sometimes struggled to close games out. France, over the same stretch, had 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. With one more win, the visitors hold a slight edge in form momentum.

Both teams have a single defeat in their last five, so neither is on an unbeaten run. This can be read as a factor that raises the chance of a cautious start. Still, France drawing less and winning more suggests a more result-driven approach.

League Standings

No league table data was provided for this fixture, so the standings are not analysed here. You can follow the broader context on the standings page.

Goal Expectation and Key Stats

The most striking part of the numbers is the difference between the two match profiles. Italy score 1.6 goals per game, concede 1.0 and average 2.6 goals in their matches. France score 2.2, concede 1.6 and see 3.8 goals per match on average. In other words, France's games produce 1.2 more goals than Italy's.

There is also an interesting balance: both teams share the same average goal difference of +0.6 per match. Italy get there through solid defending (1.0 conceded), France through a strong attack (2.2 scored). Italy's 1.6 scoring average exactly matches the 1.6 France concede, while France's 2.2 scoring average will face Italy's 1.0 conceded average. That contest may be the main axis deciding the match.

Both teams sit at 60% for both teams scoring, meaning more than half of their games have seen the net bulge at both ends. This keeps the chance of goals from both sides very much alive.

Italy's matches have cleared the lowest goal line 80% of the time, versus 60% for France. At higher goal lines the two teams meet at 40%. Notably, the high-scoring games in both samples reach the top band: the 40% figure is identical at two different levels. In other words, when goals do arrive they tend to turn into goal-heavy matches, although this pattern comes from two games out of five and is not a large sample.

iTahmin's Over potential tag for this match is rated weak/risky, with risk flagged as high. The reason is clear: Italy's lower-tempo profile and France's high-scoring profile offset each other, leaving the outcome swinging between two scenarios.

iTahmin Verdict

The data suggests France have a small advantage in form momentum and attacking output: one extra win and a scoring average 0.6 higher per match support this. Italy, on the other hand, concede fewer goals and play more controlled matches. The identical goal-difference averages are a reminder that the edge is smaller than it first appears.

Goal expectation can be read as medium-to-high. France's 3.8 match average pulls the likelihood of goals up, while Italy's 2.6 pulls it down. Both teams scoring at 60% also points to goals from each side. However, the weak/risky label on Over potential shows that this expectation is fragile. A balanced contest appears to be the reading most consistent with the data.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Italy vs France match and what time does it start?

The match will be played on November 12, 2026 at 22:45 Turkey time.

Which league or tournament is the Italy vs France match part of?

The fixture is part of the UEFA Nations League.

What is the form of Italy and France?

Italy had 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last five matches. France had 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.

This content is for informational purposes only. It is not advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.